De-risking creative driven brands
The market is full of brands that peaked, fell off, and then fell by the wayside.
But it's not a foregone conclusion that brands will fall off at any given point in time. LVMH prints billions with brands that have been around for over a century. There are publicly traded brands that have been around for decades and still growing into the 11 figures.

Clearly with the right strategy, brands - or brand groups - can capture market share and grow. At every level of scale from tiny Instagram brand to multi multi billion dollar international corporate empire.
The key thing for brands, as opposed to other industries, is taste. People don't buy weak clothes. Or shoes. Or jewelry. They buy things they like.
So how do you create products that people want to buy? That's the defining factor for brands worth investing in.
Understand the keys to strong creative inputs, and you can telegraph strong financial outputs given par for par distribution, ops, etc.
In no particular order, these are some of the heuristics I reach for to measure (underwrite) creative:
- Creative teams must be tapped in with their pocket of the universe
- Creation & consumption are a two way conversation and there must be a continuous flow of information to/from the creative team and their audience
- Must move quickly. As fast as physically possible
- Capacity for high volume output relative to current scale; more ideas = more shots on goal
- A willingness to kill weak ideas at every step. Even if a PO has already been cut. Even if product has already landed at the warehouse.
- Everyone should be having fun
- There is balance to the quality of ideas in the mix
- New Things are explored immediately and quickly when discovered
- Deep understanding of the core fundamentals
- Good (unserious) relationship with the meta game. Not overdone
- Taste is curated, highly regarded, and refined
- Direction originates from within, not from data (but, data can help guide)
- There is a Muse present
- There are vehicles to explore uncorrelated / new / different / 'risky' ideas
- There is an awareness of The Timeline
- Continuous inspiration flows
Creative is typically seen as risky because most non-creatives don't understand what makes it great. But great creative work is in fact, derived from repeatable and scalable processes, not from divine inspiration.
Know the game, and you can de-risk creative before a single dollar is spent.